Global climate change from a realistic, non-political point of view.
CHAPTER 1. SEA LEVEL RISE
Figure 1a. Sea level rise for the past 20,000 years.
based on data from Fleming et al. 1998, Fleming 2000, & Milne et al. 2005
One can see from the graph that sea levels rose quickly as the ice-age glaciers melted, but, starting about 7,000 years ago, the sea level rise has been moderate.
Figure 1b. Sea level rise at San Francisco for the past century and a half. It is linear, with no acceleration of rise. The rate is a constant 201 mm (about 8 inches) per century. Data are from NOAA (the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).
Figure 1c. NOAA data for New York City's battery (southern tip of Manhattan). You will see a constant linear rate of 277 mm or 11 inches per century.
The rate is different in New York from San Francisco because of rising and falling of continental shorelines over time. We chose SF and NYC because the data go back to the 1850's, but at all locations the sea level data reveal linear trends. Other locations don't have such long histories, but can be browsed by the reader by clicking the link below. They show different rates, depending on what part of North America the measurements were taken. In Alaska, the sea levels are actually falling due to rebound from the previous ice age. Honolulu shows interesting data as well, since Hawaii is not part of the North American continental plate. It is a slower rise, but is linear, as usual.
(click link for more coastal locations). http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=9414290
Please notice that the rate of rise has not increased in recent decades, in spite of the great increase in CO2 during that time due to human activity. If such activity played an appreciable part in increasing sea levels, the graph would show an upward curve (acceleration) starting in the mid 20th century when anthropogenic CO2 rise began in earnest. But the rise is a straight line without such a curve, or "hockey stick." The reason there is no such curve will be seen later in the paper. The general trend of 7 to 12 inches per century is due to a global warming period that started over 200 years ago, as we will see in figure 3j below.
The sea level rise is due in part to the warming of the oceans, that is, the oceans are expanding like a thermometer. Some people believe that this is due to the CO2 rise in the last half of the 20th century. Publications supporting this belief only show charts starting in the middle of the 20th century, hiding the earlier rise. This is deceptive on their parts. If global warming were caused by CO2 changes in the 20th century, there would be a lower rise, or no rise, in sea level before the mid-20th century. But the rise was just as strong as it is now, and there is no acceleration of rise in recent decades, which these charts clearly demonstrate. Some scientists, however, continue to claim there is, but are unable to show it scientifically. Some show it fraudulently, as we will see below.
Tide-gauge sea level measurements are flawed because they don't adjust for rising and falling of the continents, which is rapid enough at most locations to make a difference. But satellite data have been available since 1992 to measure the oceans globally, independent of continents. Figure 1d. shows this, and gives a more unbiased account of the rise of the ocean level, that is, the global sea level, since 1992. This information comes from satellite altimeters, which measure sea levels using coordinates similar to GPS data. We can see from the graph that the rise is still linear, without any acceleration. The rise follows almost perfectly along a straight line with a slope of 320 mm. (13 inches) per century.
Figure 1d. Satellite data 1992-present.
Study the graph below, which appeared in the September 2013 issue of National Geographic. Notice that the above (figure 1d.) satellite data, from 1992 onward, is used, but it is grafted onto tide gauge data. Note how it is asserted that this shows "clear acceleration." This is an obvious deception. We have seen that tide gauges show a linear rise, and that satellite data also show a linear rise but somewhat faster. But here they connect data from different sets onto the same graph and state that it shows acceleration! That's clearly an example of scientific fraud. It's not a hockey stick, it's a cue stick that was broken and glued back together! Unfortunately, this sort of data fudging is very typical of the way data are presented to us by people trying to prove that global warming is caused by man. The data from the satellite shows a faster rise, and they graft it onto tide gauge data, asserting that it shows acceleration, even though the tide gauge data after 1992 doesn't show any acceleration at all (see NY and SF data after 1992, on figures 1b. and 1c. or any other NOAA tide station ).
Below is a close-up showing the broken cue stick. Note how the slope suddenly changes in 1992 at the zero line where they shift from tide gauge data to satellite data:
Figure 1f. Close-up of above.
See also how they state that sea levels were not rising appreciably before the mid-1800's, but suddenly started to rise at that time "as the earth started to warm." But if the earth started to warm in the 19th century, and CO2 levels didn't rise until the 20th century, the CO2 rise obviously didn't cause the temperature rise. Because of this obvious fact, some people try to fabricate a more recent acceleration in the linear rise. The above cue stick trick is just one example of data fudging. We don't mean to pick on National Geographic for this fraudulent graph, it's part of the great "consensus" that use this exact same trick to claim sea level acceleration by grafting the satellite date onto tide gauge data as if this were acceptable science. But the scientific method says that all variables have to be kept equal, and combining different sets of data is anything but keeping variables equal. This goes against everything that the scientific method holds sacred. This is tantamount to an accountant using two sets of books, which would get him or her thrown in jail.
A 2011 paper by Church and White, peer reviewed and published in "Surveys in Geophysics," contains data which disputes this. That paper states that sea level rise accelerated in the 1800s, and has been linear ever since, but some people cite it incorrectly as saying that it is accelerating. The summary section of that paper doesn't state that sea level rise is linear, even though the facts presented in it show that it is, prompting some people to cite the paper as evidence that sea level rise is accelerating recently, even though the paper never says that.
The above data make it clear that sea level rise has been linear for over 150 years. Any statement that sea level rise is accelerating recently is an outright lie. But what's even worse, look at how sea levels suddenly rise in Figure 1e. starting in 2013 like a hockey stick in their future "predictions." This is obviously fraudulent and an attempt to sell more magazines using alarmism. Other deceivers have different motivations, but it seems that the common thread is that some people feel that fraudulent data can be used capriciously on what they consider to be a credulous public.
Figure 1g. (below) shows that humans didn't start producing much CO2 until the middle of the 20th century. How can this account for the linear rise in sea level which started 100 years earlier, and why does this recent enormous rise in CO2 not cause a synchronous acceleration of rise in sea levels in the 20th century? It's because CO2 has little to do with global warming.
Figure 1g. Anthropogenic CO2 levels last 260 years.
From Michael B. McElroy "The Atmospheric Environment" page 142. Princeton University Press c. 2002, left, and Murry L. Salby, "Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate" p. 26. Cambraidge University Press, c. 2012, right.
The above charts show that humans did not start producing CO2 in any appreciable amount until the 20th century. But Figure 1h. below shows that started to rise long before then, due to a global warming that actually started around 1780.
Figure 1h.shows the CO2 rise from ice cores, which started before anthropogenic CO2 rise.
From p.24, Murry L. Salby, "Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate," 2012, Oxford University Press
The arguments in this chapter show that the linear sea level rise of the past 160 years is not caused by an anthropogenic rise in CO2, which only came in the last 60 years. If the sea level rise was caused by CO2 at all, and not by continental movements, it started because of a natural warming that started around 1780 and led to a natural CO2 rise.
CHAPTER 2. CO2 RISE
Figure 2a. Carbon dioxide level during the last 550 million years. One can see from the chart that the current CO2 level is very low. Not long before humans arrived, it was the lowest in the history of the planet. If CO2 levels drop too low, life on earth cannot survive. Plant life depends on CO2, and animal life depends on plant life.
Copied from "Earth System History" by Steven M. Stanley (Johns Hopkins U.), W. H. Freeman & Co., New York, copyright 2009
Humans started burning coal in earnest in the late 19th century and petroleum in the early 20th. (see 1g. above). We have increased CO2 levels by 40% over pre-industrial levels, but still it is very low when compared to the time when mammals developed (the Cretaceous, 3 times today's level) and when dinosaurs lived (the Jurassic and Triassic, 5 times higher).
Figured 2b. (below) shows a similar graph, this one from "Ecology" by Peter Stiling, 2012 McGraw-Hill. The orange line shows the dropping CO2 level, and once again, it shows that the CO2 level, when humans first arrived, was the lowest in the history of the planet. Mya means million years ago.
Some people contend that the CO2 level is higher than it's been in 800,000 years, (the red arrow in 2a.), and that we might soon reach a tipping point, without showing earlier levels that were much higher without a tipping point. Therefore, they only show charts starting in the last 800,000 years, hiding the earlier levels. This is deceptive on their parts.
CHAPTER 2B. THE ROLE OF CO2 IN THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
In May, 2013, the CO2 level went over 400 ppm for the first time. Water vapor in the tropics can be up to 4% of the atmosphere by volume, which is 40,000 ppm. This means that water vapor in the tropics under these conditions is 100 times more abundant than CO2. And since each water molecule is 40% better at absorbing infrared than a CO2 molecule, because of the hydroxyl bond, that means water vapor is 140 times more important in this example as a greenhouse gas than CO2 in the tropics. But the tropics is where earth gets most of its sunlight for two reasons. First, the sunlight is stronger there, and secondly, the earth is much bigger at the equator and the tropics covers a much greater area. This demonstrates that CO2 is a trivial greenhouse gas.
The above is water in its vapor form only, and doesn't include clouds which
are liquid droplets which can convert to vapor at a moment's notice and add to
the greenhouse effect. CO2 can't do this.
Obviously, 4% is an extreme case, but 2% or 1%, which are typical clear-weather levels in the tropics and normal summertime levels in temperate zones, show that H2O is so overwhelmingly more important than CO2 as a greenhouse gas that the latter is negligible as such. Only in the winter in temperate zones, or all year in polar zones, is the CO2 level in the same league as water vapor and even worthy of mention as a greenhouse gas. However, the amount of sunlight under those conditions is not a significant percentage of the total amount of sunlight the earth receives annually, which mostly occurs in the tropics, subtropics, or in the summertime in temperate zones. The only other place where CO2 levels are in the same realm as H2O levels is the upper atmosphere, where it doesn't matter. There is very little H
The scientific consensus is that pre-industrial levels of CO2 were 280 ppm, and that we have raised it by 120 ppm. to 400, and it is commonly held among scientists that in doing so, we have raised the temperature of the earth by 0.8°C. The general understanding among most non-scientific proponents of AGW is that the more CO2 you add, the more greenhouse effect you will get, as if there were a linear relationship between the two. If this were true, it would mean 0.8°C for every 120 ppm. if the correlation is linear. Assuming it is, since the atmosphere currently has 400 ppm, that means 2.46°C are accounted for by CO2. In Michael McElroy's "The Atmospheric Environment" which is used as a textbook in many colleges, it states on page 59 that earth's greenhouse effect raises earth's surface from 255°K to 303°K, or 48°C. Of the 48 degrees of greenhouse effect, we have seen that 2.46 degrees were caused by CO2. A simple calculation shows that 2.46 out of 48 is around 5%, and if we add methane, NO2, fluorocarbons, and SO4, it brings it to around perhaps 6% or 7% for all the non-H2O greenhouse gases. Water vapor accounts for the other 93 or 94%.
The above argument starts with the premise that CO2 actually caused the 0.8°C in warming. This premise was assumed to show that, even using the global warming proponents data and argument, CO2 is insignificant as a greenhouse gas. But, judging by the rising sea levels starting in the 19th century, before CO2 was being produced in quantity by humans, and that this rise has been linear since then, in spite of all the CO2 we have produced, it shows that even the increase of temperature by 0.8°C was probably not caused by CO2 in the first place, so our rule of thumb in the last paragraph doesn't hold. Whatever has been causing the earth to warm for the past 2 centuries, it's not CO2.
Raising the CO2 level will do almost nothing to the greenhouse effect.
The above argument also starts with the premise that increases in the greenhouse effect and increases in CO2 are linear, that is, equal amounts of raising CO2 will cause equal amounts of warming. This is not the case at all, as figures 2c. and 2d. will show. We will see how almost all of the CO2-mediated greenhouse effect was caused by the first very small amounts of CO2, and that increases in CO2 do almost nothing because the atmosphere is basically saturated (not an accurate term but often used) with CO2 as it applies to the greenhouse effect. This is because the atmosphere is already almost opaque to IR at the CO2 band, and you can't make anything more opaque than opaque.
Figure 2c. shows how almost all the greenhouse effect that was caused by CO2 was caused by the first 100 or 200 ppm. (mostly by the first 20 or 40 ppm.). After 300 ppm., CO2 has very little effect, and after 400 it has almost no effect at all because of saturation.
Figure 2d. shows what is meant by saturation. It shows how adding CO2 to the atmosphere decreases Earth's irradiance into space by blocking infrared. A decrease in irradiance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (the TOA), is evidence that the atmosphere is blocking those wavelengths from escaping into space, thereby heating Earth.
From Thermal Physics by Stephen and Katherine Blundell, 2010, Oxford University Press, p. 454
The TOA radiates mainly between 7 and 50 microns, which is the part of the spectrum associated with Earth's radiant temperature, but CO2 only absorbs in a band around 15 microns (675 waves per cm.). Because the atmosphere is already almost opaque in that band, adding more CO2 has little effect, and the figure shows exactly how much that effect is. In that 14-18 micron band, increasing CO2 from 375 to 750 ppm. increases the opacity by the amount shown by dotted lines. The dip in the curve caused by the first 375 ppm. is the solid line. The dotted line, which corresponds with the second 375 ppm. is minuscule by comparison. The first 375 ppm. causes a dip the size of Grand Canyon, and the second 375 ppm. is like somebody chipping along the sides of the canyon with a small pick. Outside that band, adding CO2 to the atmosphere does nothing at all. But it gets even worse...
One can see from the graph that at around 14 microns, and again at 16-18 microns, doubling of CO2 increases the blocking of radiation very slightly, causing warming, but if you look at around 15 microns, radiation of heat into space increases, which causes cooling. So, as trivial as the increased blocking of radiation along the sides of the CO2 band is by adding CO2 to the atmosphere, it is offset by a slight increase in radiation in the central part of that band. The temperature associated with 15 microns is much colder than the surface anywhere on Earth, so it corresponds with the TOA temperatures, which means this radiation is going into space. Any of this radiation aimed downward would be blocked by CO2 high up, and never reach the ground. In summary, some of the effect of doubling CO2 causes warming, and some causes cooling, but in either case the amount is trivial because the atmosphere is already almost opaque to infrared at the CO2 band.
This represents the increase in greenhouse effect if we raised the level to 750 ppm, which would take centuries to do and would only result if we burned every trace of fossil fuel reserves on the planet. So, as trivial as this increase in the greenhouse effect would be by raising CO2 to 750 ppm., it will probably never even happen.
The arguments presented in this chapter make it clear that the greenhouse effect on earth is mediated almost entirely by water vapor. All the other gases don't amount to a hill of shizzle. And the small amount that is caused by pre-industrial levels of CO2 will not be increased by more than a negligible amount by adding more CO2.
Chapter 3. Global warming
The above famous temperature chart was produced by NASA's GISS division and has been used and cited by hundreds of scientists in the consensus. We can see that between 1908 and 1942, global temperatures went up 0.5 degrees centigrade.
From 1942 to 1978 global temperatures decreased and rebounded, but in 1978, we start back where we were in 1942, at +0.06°C, and find that temperatures rose again sharply during the period 1978 to 2004. During those years it rose 0.54°C.
The 0.54°C rise from 1978 to 2004 was supposedly due to human generated CO2 from power plants, automobiles, and factories, as humans belched gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere. The 0.5°C rise from 1908 to 1942 was due to the new Model T Ford. </sarcasm>
What about the melting poles? They always show us pictures of polar bears and melting sea ice at the north pole, but never talk about the south pole. It turns out, the Arctic is warming but the Antarctic is cooling, and by the same amounts. The following graph shows total global sea ice since 1979.
Figure 3a. Global sea ice has not changed in 25 years
Courtesy University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, see web address in screen grab.
We can see that global sea ice ranged from 23 km2 to 16 km2 in 1980, and that in 2013 it was exactly the same. Every year the amount of sea ice reaches a maximum in December when the Antarctic sea ice melt exceeds Arctic freezing, and a minimum in February when the Antarctic sea ice is almost all melted and the Arctic is still freezing. There was a slight decrease in global sea ice from around 2006 to 2011, but it has now recovered to 1980 values.
The global warming theory requires that warming starts at the poles, and since the poles are not warming, if both poles are taken together, that means the theory is a null hypothesis. But that won't stop alarmists from showing starving polar bears, instead of fat penguins. By the way, the polar bears are also fat.
The Hockey Stick
What about the hockey stick, the recent rise in global temperatures? Well yes, the earth's temperature is rising, but it started around 1780. Let's look at some data derived from ice cores taken in central Greenland, on the summit of an ice sheet 2 miles high (because the ice is 2 miles thick), in the study done by NOAA called GISP2 (Greenland Ice Sheet Project #2).
Water is made of hydrogen and oxygen, and we can measure the H and O isotopes in the ice at varying depths to tell us what the temperatures were for the past 50,000 years. The data are used as a "proxy," which means an event which can be used in place of thermometers. Many things are used as proxies, such as tree rings, pollen, dust, and sediment, but polar ice cores are by far the best because they are taken in places where there is very little weather, (no tornados, typhoons, floods, droughts), and very little other changes, (no biological influence, no changes from geology because it's 2 miles above solid ground), and it's far away from any human influence. Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the ice are analyzed to determine hemispheric temperatures because heavy water (water with deuterium instead of 1H), as well as heavy oxygen water, (water with 18O instead of 16O), have higher boiling points than regular water, and more heavy water gets into the atmosphere when global temperatures are high. A certain amount of fractioning also occurs before it freezes in Greenland, because the freezing point of heavy water is also higher than that of regular water, but the overall theory is, the warmer the earth, the more heavy isotopes wind up in the ice.
Some argue that the Greenland proxy is local, and that the snow that freezes in Greenland arose in the Arctic Ocean via the polar easterlies, and so all the ice cores show us is polar temperatures, and some argue that the stratification of the isotopes in the ice cores results from fractioning during precipitation, so all they show us is the temperatures on Greenland Summit itself, but both of these points are wrong. Werner et. al., 2001 found that only 15% of Greenland Summit moisture comes from the Arctic Ocean. The rest comes from the following: 28% from the northern Atlantic, 15% from North America, 14% from the tropical Atlantic, 10% from the tropical Indopacific, 8% from the northern Pacific, 6% from Eurasia, and because this only adds up to 96%, the remaining 4% must come from the southern hemisphere, although it doesn't state that in the paper. But the Arctic Ocean doesn't count here, because it is full of ice and is therefore always the same temperature (in the same way that ice water in your glass is always 32 °F) and therefore, water vapor that arises from the Arctic Ocean would not be differentially fractioned in terms of isotopes and would have nothing to do with the isotope stratification in the ice core. The reason the stratification is due to differential evaporation at the source, not fractioning during precipitation, is found in Werner et. al., in the same paper, which states that a polar ice core "seems to be a surface temperature proxy" which means the surface temperature at the evaporative source, because "The strength of the deuterium excess signal is in general related to kinetic fractionation effects during evaporation, and can therefore be used as an indicator of changes in temperature and/or humidity at the evaporation site (Vimeux et. al. 1999, Johnson et. al., 1989)." Another reason the Greenland proxy is not local is, Antarctic proxies show similar results when there is no south polar ocean at all. A third reason is, during an ice age the Arctic Ocean is completely frozen over and covered with a mile of snow, yet ice core results from 30,000 years ago, during the depth of an ice age, show similar isotope stratification as during the Holocene when the Arctic Ocean has liquid surface water. Polar ice core proxies are, therefore, hemispheric. The Greenland ice core data, which is a proxy for the northern hemisphere, instead of Antarctic which is a proxy for southern, will be used for this analysis because it has a much higher resolution during the Holocene. High resolution Antarctic ice cores showing the Holocene more clearly can be made, and are a project which needs to be done.
The Greenland ice core data are from NOAA: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/metadata/noaa-icecore-2475.html
Looking at the data, it starts thousands of years ago and ends at a point that is .095 thousand years BP (95 years before present). This means 95 years before the geological "present" (by definition, geological present is January 1, 1950). This means 1855.
The horizontal axis on the charts below is the year, the vertical axis shows the proxy temperatures in central Greenland, in Celsius, as determined by the isotope signatures found in the cores. The temperature at the summit of Greenland is used on the chart because it is a known value that can be measured with a thermometer and calibrated in the lab to line up with isotope levels in precipitation measured there in modern times. Water vapor from the tropics moves to the poles through the stratosphere, so local tropospheric weather is not relevant, only hemispheric temperatures.
As we can see, the hockey stick starts around 1780, long before we started increasing the atmosphere's carbon dioxide levels. The data stops in 1855 because the snow above that level is too recent and not solidified, and is not usable in ice cores, but we know from figure 3a. that the hockey stick goes through the 20th century as well.
Figure 3b. The red arrows points to the hockey stick from 1780 to 1855.
Figure 3c. goes back to 800 AD. We see the warm period around 1000 A.D., the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). This is when Greenland was settled by the Danes and Norwegians. They had to leave around 1400 and you can see why. They settled Iceland around 880 A.D. when it was becoming warm there. It looks like 1855 was much cooler than the MWP as well, but don't forget to add the modern century and a half, which is warmer. How much warmer? See below at figure 3i. and 3j.
Figure 3d. goes back even further, to around 2,700 BC. Around 1,400 BC it was much warmer than even the MWP, or the modern hockey stick. Our modern temperatures, even with global warming, are colder than some of these peaks, which happened when the CO2 level was very low and nobody was burning anything but sticks.
Figure 3e. goes back to around 9,000 BC, and includes the entire Holocene. Look at some of the giant hockey sticks here, many of which are much bigger AND steeper than the global warming of today. All of this happened, however, when the CO2 level was much lower than today.
In this illustration, we have spliced a red hockey stick at the end. See 3i. and 3j. below to see what we did.
Figure 3f. goes back to 11,000 BC and we are getting into the last ice age. Look how cold it got back then, around 10,000 BC, and look how insignificant our little hockey stick is. It looks like the hockey stick, if it went a little higher, would bring us up to normal interglacial average Holocene temperatures. None of this has anything to do with man-made CO2.
Figure 3g. This is when it starts to get scary. Remember how cold it got at 10,000 BC? It was like that for thousands of years before then. Canada and the northern US and Europe were buried under a mile of ice. Look how lucky we are today and how nice that hockey stick looks, warming us up a little. Feels nice, doesn't it?
Figure 3h. is when is gets really scary. These data are from Antarctica because Greenland ice doesn't go back this far in time. It shows the past several ice ages. It was warm 120,000 years ago, 230,000 years ago, 330,000 years ago, and 420,000 years ago. All the rest of the time it was ice ages. You can't see the hockey stick anymore but it's in the warm part on the right. The warm parts usually last only a few thousand years, and we are past the end of ours and living on borrowed time. Long live the hockey stick!
What about the years between 1855 and now? What was the temperature after 1855? Nobody was taking temperatures at the GISP2 site all this time. Luckily, there is a weather station only a few miles from there called the GRIP site, where people have been taking temperatures since 1840! The GRIP site is not as cold as the GISP2 site, so we can't just insert the data onto the chart. But we can simply find the difference between the 1855 GISP2 temperature of -31.6 and the decadal average for the 1850's at the GRIP site, which was -28.4, for a difference of 3.2 degrees. Now, we can add that number and plot the GRIP data right onto the GISP2 chart to get a modern hockey stick.
Figure 3j., same as 3e. above, shows what we did. We spliced the GRIP data (red) onto the GISP2 data (blue) to bring us to the modern temp of -30.2 at the GISP2 site in Greenland and -27.0 at the GRIP site. You can see that this hockey stick is nothing out of the ordinary. The same amount and speed of increase in temperatures happened many times during the past 10,000 years. Actually, every time before. This modern hockey stick looks like it belongs here, and is perfectly normal. What is certain is that it's not catastrophic in any way.
Below is a photo of Vice President Gore disproving anthropogenic global warming, but he is too stupid to know it.
He is showing how CO2 correlates with temperature over the past several ice ages. The red line is CO2 and the blue is temperature, for the past 650,000 years. Al Gore is trying to show that CO2 causes warming. We already know, however, that the changes in blue precede the red. In other words, the changes in temperature cause CO2 to rise. (Warming of the earth causes CO2 to come out of the oceans.) VP Gore's antics of raising himself on a 20 foot high lift to show astronomically high CO2 levels, without a concomitant rise in temperature, only proves that he has no idea what he's talking about.
Let's get a better look at the chart he used, and see how CO2 lags behind warming.
CHAPTER 4. THE SUN
Let me just show you some pretty pictures. First, from "The Neglected Sun" by F. Vahrenholt and S. Lüning:
The next one shows increase and decrease of solar activity, from carbon 14 evidence. From Wikipedia. See there, or google it. I'm tired of talking.
Read more about the sun here.
In chapter 1, we found out how they lied to us about sea levels. In chapter 2, we learned how they lied to us about CO2. In chapter 3, we discovered that global warming is happening, but what they tell us about it is all lies. In chapter 4, we learned about the sun.
It's clear that AGW was just a fad, like Beatlemania. This fad lasted from the early 1980's until around 2009, when the fraud was fully exposed, and more fraud is being exposed daily. It's time to put it to bed. Global warming is dead. Only the most hard-core alarmists, with the most invested, are still holding onto the hoax.
APPENDIX. Stupid things global warming alarmists say
1."The villagers depend on the glacier melt water, and when the glacier is gone they will all die of thirst."
Why it's stupid:
Water doesn't come from glaciers. It comes from precipitation. If there was enough precipitation up there to make a glacier, there will be enough precipitation up there to keep the river running. Billions of people live where the only water to drink comes from creeks and rivers where there are no melting glaciers upstream, stupid.
2. "The CO2 level will reach a tipping point where a feedback will cause runaway increase in CO2 until Earth is like Venus."
Why it's stupid:
Earth has .04% CO2. Venus has 99% CO2. And Venus' atmosphere is 90 times denser than ours. And Venus is half as far from the sun as we are. Comparing Earth to Venus is like comparing a candle to a blast furnace, stupid.
Another reason why it's stupid:
Mars also has an atmosphere that is over 90% CO2, yet nobody ever compared Earth to Mars.
3. "You work for ExxonMobil and watch Fox News, and you are funded by the Koch brothers."
Why it's stupid:
I don't work for ExxonMobil, and I don't watch Fox News, stupid. And who the hell are the Koch brothers?
4. "97% of the scientists are in consensus so it's true."
Why it's stupid:
Like any other political party, the global warming party only allows like-minded people to join. That party is currently in charge of the media, the schools, the presidency, and the IPCC. People who disagree with them get fired and blacklisted. Saying that 97% of its members agree with each other means nothing. Science is not a democracy, stupid.
5a. "The reason sea ice near Antarctica is increasing every winter is because water is melting off the land and hitting the ocean, where it freezes."
Why it's stupid:
The ocean water off the coast of Antarctica is colder than the land itself in winter? Ice never melts in Antarctica in the winter. How is it possible for anybody to be this stupid?
5b. "The reason sea ice near Antarctica is increasing every winter is because of stratification of the Southern Ocean due to global warming. Zhang 2006 says 'increase in surface air temperature results in an increase in the upper-ocean temperature and a decrease in sea ice growth, leading to a decrease in salt rejection from ice, and a decrease in upper-ocean salinity and density. This enhanced thermohaline stratification tends to suppress convective overturning, leading to a decrease in upward heat transport and an increase in sea ice.' "
Why it's stupid:
The increase in sea ice is caused by a decrease in sea ice? I guess it's possible for somebody to be as stupid as 5a. above.
5c. "The reason sea ice near Antarctica is increasing every winter is because global warming is increasing rainfall in the Southern Ocean, and rain is fresh water so it freezes."
Why it's stupid:
The sea ice is 10 feet thick. To make 10 feet of ice, you need 10 feet of rain, which is impossible, stupid.
5d. "The reason sea ice near Antarctica is increasing every winter is because of the hole in the ozone layer, making the Antarctic colder."
Why it's stupid:
Ozone is very high in elevation, at the top of the atmosphere, and plays more of a role in radiating heat to space than returning it to Earth, so a decrease in ozone would make the South Pole Warmer, not colder.
5e. "The reason sea ice near Antarctica is increasing every winter is because of the wind. The polar winds from the continent are getting stronger, because of global warming."
Why it's stupid:
In 5a. we learned that the land was warmer than the sea. Now we find out that the wind coming off the land is colder than the sea. I wonder why all that cold polar wind doesn't cool the land and stop ice from melting in the winter. Wow, you really ARE stupider than a rock...a very dumb rock.
5f. "The reason sea ice near Antarctica is increasing every winter is because blah blah blah........"
Why it's stupid:
If you need to make up this many reasons for something, you are lying.
6. "Water vapor doesn't count as a greenhouse gas because it's a liquid and it doesn't stay in the atmosphere long before precipitating out. CO2 is by far the most important greenhouse gas because it's a gas and not a liquid."
Why it's stupid:
This is not only stupid, it's an outright lie. Nobody cares about the liquid or the precipitation, all we care about is the water vapor in the air. The alarmists know that water vapor is so much more abundant than CO2 and so much more important as a greenhouse gas that they have to hide it or downplay it, because it blows their whole theory out of the water, and it doesn't hold water anyway. They're all wet.
7. "Every year over 3000 weather stations in America break their all-time heat records!"
Why it's stupid:
You can't makes statistical statements like this without something to compare it to. How many all-time cold records are broken each day? How many weather stations are there? 3000 out of 5000 would be a lot, but 3000 out of 3 million isn't. How many all-time heat records would be broken if there were no climate change? How many all-time heat records would be broken if the climate were cooling? Statements like this are not science, they are propaganda.
8. "Water vapor is a feedback, not a forcing. The more greenhouse effect we get from CO2, the more water vapor can remain in the air, which magnifies the greenhouse effect of CO2, the main greenhouse gas."
Why it's stupid:
Water vapor is a forcing, stupid. It's hundreds of times more of a forcing than CO2. And you are a miserable, pathetic liar for saying it isn't. It's also a feedback. It's also got latent heat. One thing it doesn't have is a hill of shizzle. That's what CO2 has, you idiot.
9. "The global cooling scare of the 1970s never happened, it's just a myth that deniers made up."
Why it's stupid:
Because people can read. Every piano bench and hat box in America's attics is full of old magazines and newspapers. We've all read them.
10. "The ice melting in the Arctic decreases the albedo. Ice reflects sunlight, and melted snow exposes open water and causes the Arctic sunlight to be absorbed."
Why it's stupid:
Sunlight in the Arctic? What sunlight in the Arctic? It's dark 6 months a year and even at the summer solstice the sun only rises 23 degrees angle.
11. "You cherry-pick your data."
Why it's stupid:
Alarmists fudge, falsify, hide, and lie about their data, AND cherry pick. Showing the northern hemisphere only is cherry picking. Showing the north pole and not the south pole is cherry picking. Talking about 4 drowned polar bears is cherry picking. Hiding the sea level rise of the 1800s is cherry picking. Ignoring global warming before WWII, especially the large amount between 1908 and 1942, is cherry picking. The list goes on and on.
12. "You deniers are like the tobacco companies who denied that cigarettes cause cancer."
Why it's stupid:
Because tobacco causes cancer. CO2 is totally harmless to humans and Earth.
13. "Hurricane Sandy was caused by climate change."
Why it's stupid:
Sandy hit the coast at high tide. The daily tides in New Jersey and New York are around 5 feet and the storm surge of Sandy was 13 feet, which adds up to 18 feet. The sea level has risen by around 9 inches over the past 100 years on the east coast. The damage was caused by the 18 feet in a few hours, not the 9 inches in 100 years.
14. "Hurricane Katrina was caused by climate change."
Why it's stupid:
Katrina was so destructive because it hit a major city. Hurricanes cause more damage when they hit major cities, than when they miss major cities.
15. Below is a graph that Al Gore has in his movie that proves global warming is not anthropogenic, but he doesn't know it.
Why it's stupid:
In the graph, we see that the temperatures never went into the red between the mid-1300s and the 1800's, and then you see one blip in the red around 1870 or so. We weren't burning any petroleum in 1870 and very little coal. Then around 1900 it rises quickly. But the CO2 levels were the same in 1900 as the pre-industrial level, so whatever is causing the warming, it's not CO2. Look at figure 1g. to see how little CO2 we had made in 1870 and 1900. None!
16. "The science is settled. I don't argue with deniers because it's settled."
Why it's stupid:
Saves them from having to argue. Truth can't be argued with lies so for their own sake, they avoid it.
17. "Humans spew 8 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere every year."
Why it's stupid:
Giga is billion and billion is a big number, and big enough to alarm. And what alarmists want to do is alarm. Stupid point number 7 above gives an example of giving us alarming-sounding numbers without anything to compare it to. A gigaton is a lot, but is this a large number when talking about the atmosphere? No, it's a small one. The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is measured in teratons, and the total atmosphere is measured in petatons. One gigaton is nothing, stupid.
Another reason why it's stupid:
Did you ever notice that global warming alarmists always say "carbon" instead of carbon dioxide? The reason they do this is calculated. It's because people know that carbon is soot, and therefore dirty, as opposed to carbon dioxide which is an odorless invisible gas. It's public relations and propaganda. Carbon dioxide is perfectly harmless and belongs in the atmosphere, you moron.
18. "You are anti-science."
Why it's stupid:
Climate science is a branch of environmental science, which is a branch of political science, which is a branch of social science, which is a branch of liberal arts, which is a branch of bullshit artists. We are not anti-science, we are anti-artists. Get it right.
19. "The sun doesn't vary in its output by more than 0.1% either way, which isn't enough to explain global warming."
Why it's stupid:
If we take the 0.1% figure, knowing that the sun heats the earth by about 300K, and do basic arithmetic, we find that 0.1% of 300 is 0.3°, and since that is "in either direction" it comes out to 0.6 °C from max to min. But 0.6 °C explains global warming, stupid.
20. "Greenland ice cores are only a local proxy of temperature."
Why it's stupid:
Isotope concentrations in ice cores are a proxy of the temperatures at the evaporation site. There is no evaporation on the Greenland Summit because it is always frozen. Any evaporation (sublimation) on the Summit would ruin the annual layers found in the ice. Basically, none of the moisture that freezes at the Greenland Summit comes from the Greenland Summit. It's the opposite of a local proxy. It's an "everywhere but local" proxy, stupid.
21. "Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas."
Why it's stupid:
According to Murray L. Salby's "Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate," p. 248-9, the greenhouse effect over the past 2 centuries has been increased by 1.5 Wm-2 due to CO2. He continues that this "is about 0.5% of the 327 Wm-2 of overall downwelling LW radiation that warms the Earth's surface. The vast majority of that warming is contributed by water vapor. Together with cloud, it accounts for 98% of the greenhouse effect." Kind of makes you feel stupid, doesn't it?
WHY ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (AGW) IS WRONG - A concise list of reasons
We cannot disprove AGW by making fun of Al Gore, proving fraud in Mann or Jones, questioning the motives of political activists, or disputing the computer models. It's possible for these to be wrong and AGW to still be true. We must give actual reasons why the science is wrong. Here is a summary of the reasons:
1. Global warming started around 1800 when CO2 levels were unchanged from pre-industrial. Most of it occurred before 1942. Glaciers have been melting since the early 1800's as this article from 1910 shows: http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/100784966 and they aren't melting any faster now than they were then.
2. Sea level rise also started in the early 1800's, 100 years before CO2 levels started to change, and it has not accelerated since then.
3. Ice core data showing earlier ice ages shows that CO2 rise always lags behind warming, so warming drives CO2 rise, not the other way around. One can argue that in the past, the warming may have driven CO2 rise and that modern warming is different, but this argument falls apart when we see no acceleration of warming in the last half of the 20th century when compared to the first half. That means, there should definitely be much faster warming from 1950 to 2000, than there was 1900 to 1950. But it's the same rate. And it has stopped warming anyway.
4. Warming should start at the poles, but it isn't. The south pole was getting colder until recently, and has now leveled off, but it has never warmed, and even though the north pole was warming and has now leveled off, it still is not as warm as it was in the 1930's and 1940's, or even the 1950s. See studies by Rajmund Przybylak of Poland and Igor Polyakov of Alaska. See figure 3a. above, showing global sea ice. In spite of all the lies we are told about why Antarctic sea ice in increasing, the truth is that it's increasing because the Southern Ocean is cooling. No change in global sea ice since 1980! If the poles are not warming, the globe isn't either.
5. The urban heat island effect (UHI) is huge and is never figured into any of the global temperature calculations done by NASA, GISS or NOAA, or in the IPCC reports. Many of these weather stations are in places where urbanization has occurred. What may have been a cornfield in 1920 may be an asphalt parking lot today. The UHI effect is enormous, much more than the 0.8 °C of warming the charts show, and yet the charts don't adjust for it at all. This tells us there may not even be any global warming at all.
6. Figure 2c. shows us that any greenhouse effect caused by CO2 was caused by the first small amounts of it, before man, leading to the atmosphere becoming almost opaque to infrared at the CO2 band. Any increase in greenhouse effect caused by increases in CO2 is trivial to negligible.
7. Calculations in chapter 2 show that the greenhouse effect is caused almost entirely by water vapor. At least 95%, and probably more.
8. Modern warming happened in 3 steps. One, a 0.4 °C rise from 1800 to mid-1800s, then a 0.5 °C rise from 1908 to 1942, and then a 0.54 °C rise from 1974 to 2003. Neither of the first two had anything to do with CO2, and there is no reason to think the third one had much to do with it either.
9. Look at stupid point 19 above, where the solar output varies by 0.1% from max to min. Even if the figures are just guesstimates, we need not look any further for the cause.
10. Look at stupid point 21 above. 98% of Earth's greenhouse effect is caused by water vapor, stupid.
(List under construction)
This chart shows that modern warming started around 1810, long before humans did anything to the CO2.
This next chart shows 6 different temperature proxies or reconstructions along with the instrument record. All 6 of them show that modern warming started in the 1800's. Four of them show a sudden rise that started around 1810 or 1820 and the other 2 don't disagree with them either. One of these reconstructions was even done by Michael Mann of hockey stick fame. The fact that global warming started over 100 years before humans did anything to CO2 shows unequivocally that humans did not cause it, and that the people who say we did are spreading a myth, a legend, a fraud, a hoax, and party politics as usual.
The next one shows that there have been many periods of global warming during the past 3500 years. The steepness of rise during many of theses warm periods was faster than modern warming, and some of them were much bigger. Actually, it shows that the Little Ice Age was the problem, not modern warming, and that all that is happening now is temperatures are coming back to where they belong.
GISP2 data in °C with
0 = -31.22
GRIP data in °C adjusted so 1855 is the same as GISP2 on the y axis